Will France strike Iran by March 31?
March
Consensus Probability
3%
Weak0%
Polymarket4% avg · 3 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? | 2% | $86K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 10% | $17K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will France strike Iran by March 31? | 1% | $16K | standalone |