Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$64K
Bid / Ask
9% / 11%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
March
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1385754
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