Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
Consensus Probability
29%
Weak6%
Polymarket43% avg · 6 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | 7% | $281K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | 64% | $99K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | 20% | $86K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | 37% | $70K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | 49% | $67K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | 80% | $30K | standalone |