Markets/Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 08:18 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

69%YES

31%NO

Volume 24h

$97

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

68% / 70%

Spread

2.10pp

Expert Signal

69%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-12.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

89% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

74% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: -9.1pp

83% → 74%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

77% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 69%99%

Buy YES@ 69¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 31¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $97 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 69%. The bid-ask spread is 2.10 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1271613