Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Closes September 20, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$273
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
11% / 13%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026…
2026
21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $273 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on September 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1364105
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.