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Markets/Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?

3%YES
97%NO
Vol 24h$90
Liquidity$13K
Bid / Ask3% / 3%
Spread0.10pp
ClosesOct 4, 2026

FM Estimate

2%

Market Price

3%
Aligned
Macro fundamentals-3.1pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets16 markets

This event has 16 active outcome markets. Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the f: 40%, less: 39%, Renan Santos finish in third place in the fir: 34%.

Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round
40%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
39%
Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round o
34%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
22%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the
22%
Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first rou
3%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20

3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the
2%
Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first r
1%
Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round
1%
Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first roun
1%
Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of
0%
Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round
0%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $90 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1366009