Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
6% / 9%
Spread
2.50pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Biggest move: +6.3pp
4% → 10%
Mar 29, 2026
Peak probability
10% YES — highest in period
Mar 29, 2026
Current
8% YES (+0.2pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+8.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.50 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370737
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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