Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.5% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$54K
Liquidity
$104K
Bid / Ask
14% / 15%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $54K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1394086
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31: 14%, June 30: 8%, May 31: 5%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~72%.
Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
16% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
17% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this