ForecastMind
Markets/Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$73K

Liquidity

$91K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+66.7pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $73K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1662841

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31: 16%, June 30: 8%, May 31: 5%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~71%.

Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
16%
Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
8%
Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
5%

Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?

1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%
½ Kelly8.3%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this