Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$100K
Liquidity
$38K
Bid / Ask
18% / 19%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Biggest move: +16.7pp
10% → 27%
Mar 8, 2026
Peak probability
27% YES — highest in period
Mar 8, 2026
Current
17% YES (-0.7pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $100K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1394368
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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