US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$88K
Bid / Ask
68% / 69%
Spread
1.00pp
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
82% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
67% YES — lowest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Current
69% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1571566
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Correlated Markets
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