Market Closed
This market has resolved. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Market Price
FM Estimate
low confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 81%, December 31, 2026: 61%, May 31: 24%.
Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $131 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 61%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2025.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1397270