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This market has resolved. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
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Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Market Price

61%YES

FM Estimate

61%
NO39%
Vol 24h$131
Liquidity$59K
Bid / Ask60% / 61%
Spread1.00pp
ClosedDec 31, 2025
Macro fundamentals+1.4pp
Historical patterns-0.4pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 81%, December 31, 2026: 61%, May 31: 24%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-6.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $131 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 61%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2025.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1397270