Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Market Price
FM Estimate
low confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 80%, December 31, 2026: 60%, May 31: 14%.
Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 81%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677366