Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$235K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
15% / 17%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump talk to MrBeast in March?
March
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
37% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Trough probability
16% YES — lowest in period
Mar 29, 2026
Biggest move: -8.0pp
27% → 19%
Mar 29, 2026
Current
16% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $235K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1455604
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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