Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
9% / 20%
Spread
11.60pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump talk to MrBeast in March?
March
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
37% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Biggest move: -10.9pp
35% → 24%
Mar 29, 2026
Current
14% YES (-8.8pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 11.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1455618
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