Markets/Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$477

Liquidity

$12K

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+73.9pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

2027

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $477 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485218

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