Markets/Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 09:02 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

16%YES

84%NO

Volume 24h

$383

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

15% / 17%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

2027

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Biggest move: +7.0pp

21% → 28%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

27% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 84¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $383 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485230