Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
Market Price
FM Estimate
2%low confidence · 2 signals
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
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14 deadline markets. Combined YES = 291% — 191pp excess suggests collective overpricing.
US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin War
US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is c
Price History · 30 days
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on October 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1494829