Markets/Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Data as of Apr 10, 2026, 01:23 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

10%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroOil +0.8% ↑, VIX -0.4% ↓, Gold -0.3% ↓

+0.5pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h10:11 AM

Polymarket Price

11%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

$58K

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

10% / 11%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+2.3pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $58K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1515492

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. June 30: 26%, April 30, 2026: 13%, April 30: 11%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~51%.