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Markets/Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

62%YES
38%NO
Vol 24h$173K
Liquidity$46K
Bid / Ask17% / 17%
Spread0.10pp
ClosesApr 30, 2026

FM Estimate

15%

Market Price

16%
↑ Overpriced 1.6pp
Macro fundamentals-2.4pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. June 30: 63%, April 30, 2026: 62%, April 30: 36%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+34.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?" at 62% YES / 38% NO. In the last 24 hours, $173K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-18). "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 62%, NO 38%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731344