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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
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Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5

Closed April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

78%YES
22%NO

Volume 24h

$91K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

75% / 79%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

78%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5" at 78% YES / 22% NO. In the last 24 hours, $91K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 78%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 78%, NO 22%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1515633

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5: 82%, Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5: 78%, Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5: 62%.

Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5
82%

Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5

78%
Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
62%
Penguins vs. Lightning
41%
Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5
32%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Current

52% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 78%99%
Buy YES@ 78¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 22¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this