Markets/Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:16 AM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$101K

Liquidity

$39K

Bid / Ask

11% / 11%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-14.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -20.7pp

26% → 5%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

11% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $101K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542982