Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
Closes March 24, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
16% / 17%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
32% YES
Mar 21, 2026
Trough probability
14% YES — lowest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: -7.0pp
22% → 15%
Mar 22, 2026
Current
16% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542984
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