Markets/US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 07:23 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

12%FIS

−2ppvs market 14%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.5% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -0.5% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑

-2.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute05:57 AM

Polymarket Price

14%YES

86%NO

Volume 24h

$123K

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

14% / 14%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+2.0pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $123K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1543487

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?: 51%, June 30: 39%, April 30: 14%.