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Markets/Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
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Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Closed March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

61%YES
39%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

59% / 63%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

60%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Resni.ca (Res) win the most seats in the 2026…

2026

Full event →
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
90%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
61%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
61%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
60%
29
59%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
57%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
41%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
39%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
39%
25
28%
34
8%
39
5%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
3%
40+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly
2%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
2%
Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP
1%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
1%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
1%
the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatina
1%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
1%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi)
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliament
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi)
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliame
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-P
0%
the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian p
0%

45 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 61%99%
Buy YES@ 61¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 39¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1567856