Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26?

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 06:08 AM UTC

Closes March 26, 2026

Polymarket Price

70%YES

31%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

63% / 65%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

65%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25?

March

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

62% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Current

60% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 70%99%

Buy YES@ 70¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%

½ Kelly0.8%

Buy NO@ 31¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26?" at 70% YES / 30% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 65%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 70%, NO 30%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1652072