Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
3% / 7%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656505
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