Markets/LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage

LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:32 PM UTC

Closes March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

100%YES

0%NO

Volume 24h

$1.1M

Liquidity

$599K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Event Distribution

LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Full event →

LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC G

100%

LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winn

100%

LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - L

17%

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+12.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

83% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Trough probability

56% YES — lowest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: -26.5pp

83% → 56%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

95% YES (+23.4pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 99%99%

Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.1M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1659870

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.