Markets/Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 07:58 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

46%YES

55%NO

Volume 24h

$86K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

44% / 46%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+23.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Biggest move: +12.0pp

25% → 37%

Mar 24, 2026

Peak probability

42% YES — highest in period

Mar 24, 2026

Current

40% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 46%99%

Buy YES@ 46¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 54¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $86K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1672915