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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?

Closes March 23, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$23K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

4% / 7%

Spread

2.50pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?

March

Full event →
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 22?
75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?
72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 22?
28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 22?
11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?
10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?
5%
less than $64,000 on March 23?
3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 22?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on March 22?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?
0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
0%

26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-46.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

9%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -41.5pp

50% → 9%

Mar 22, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢

-8.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly8.3%
½ Kelly4.1%
Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 8.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 2.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1678573

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