Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 23?
Closes March 24, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$49K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.80pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Solana reach $160 in March?
March
21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Biggest move: +8.9pp
9% → 18%
Mar 23, 2026
Peak probability
18% YES — highest in period
Mar 23, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-6.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 23?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $49K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1688327
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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