ForecastMind
Markets/Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?
Share on X

Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$262

Liquidity

$29K

Bid / Ask

4% / 6%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $262 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1693060

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. April 30: 6%, April 30: 5%, April 30: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~78%.

Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?

6%
Turkey strike Iran by April 30?
5%
any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?
4%
Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?
4%
Oman strike Iran by April 30?
4%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢
Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this