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Markets/Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?
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Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$52

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $52 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1693059

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. April 30: 5%, April 30: 4%, April 30: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~76%.

Jordan strike Iran by April 30?
5%
Turkey strike Iran by April 30?
4%
Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?
4%
Qatar strike Iran by April 30?
4%
any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?
4%

Oman strike Iran by April 30?

4%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+12.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+12.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this