Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$50K
Liquidity
$106K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1707316
This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 9%, April 30, 2026: 4%, April 30, 2026: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~86%.
US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Current
1% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-20.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this