Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +7.0% ↑, VIX -2.7% ↓, Gold -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$28K
Liquidity
$45K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1707608
This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 7%, April 30, 2026: 3%, April 30, 2026: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~90%.
Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Apr 4, 2026
Trough probability
9% YES — lowest in period
Apr 5, 2026
Current
9% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+17.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this