ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5
Share on X

Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

21%YES
79%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$19

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1798776

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Sam Merrill: Points O/U 12.5: 36%, Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5: 21%, Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~40%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+35.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +34.8pp

1% → 35%

Apr 1, 2026

Current

35% YES (+34.8pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 21%99%
Buy YES@ 21¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 79¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%
½ Kelly0.7%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this