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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

16%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$34K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

16% / 18%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813912

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?: 16%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?: 6%, Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?: 2%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~75%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +24.0pp

11% → 35%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

35% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

13% YES (-5.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 16%99%
Buy YES@ 16¢
Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this