Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2028
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$20K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
39% / 42%
Spread
2.50pp
Expert Signal
41%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 2.50 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1818149
This event has 8 active outcome markets. Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?: 98%, Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 93%, Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?: 85%.
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
40% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Current
37% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this