ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)
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Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)

Closes April 14, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$22K

Liquidity

$54K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1818937

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Club Atlético de Madrid: 26%, Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5): 13%, Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5): 5%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~57%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this