ForecastMind
Markets/Heat vs. Raptors
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Heat vs. Raptors

Closes April 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

40%YES
61%NO

Volume 24h

$554K

Liquidity

$484K

Bid / Ask

39% / 40%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

40%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Heat vs. Raptors" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $554K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Heat vs. Raptors." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1845072

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5: 52%, Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5: 49%, Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5: 47%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

41% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Current

40% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 40%99%
Buy YES@ 40¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 61¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this