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Markets/Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
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Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

8%YES
92%NO
Vol 24h$262
Liquidity$10K
Bid / Ask6% / 9%
Spread3.00pp
ClosesMay 7, 2026

FM Estimate

6%

Market Price

8%
↑ Overpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals-3.2pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets16 markets

This event has 16 active outcome markets. the Labour Party: 88%, the Liberal Democrats: 82%, the Labour Party: 72%.

Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in
88%
Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat electio
82%
Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in
72%
Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in
67%
Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 20
61%
Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat electio
60%
Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom
45%
Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat electio
43%
Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in
38%
Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in t
30%
Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in
23%
Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the
19%
Green Party win the most council seat elections in the
13%
Conservative Party win the most council seat elections
8%

Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local

8%
Liberal Democrats win the most council seat elections i
3%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $262 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on May 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1864305