Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Thunder (-22.5)
Closed April 5, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$91K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
77% / 82%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
82%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-22.5)" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $91K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Spread: Thunder (-22.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1869265
This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Thunder (-22.5): 82%, Spread: Thunder (-20.5): 64%, Spread: Thunder (-21.5): 60%.
Spread: Thunder (-22.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
56% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Biggest move: +23.5pp
57% → 81%
Apr 6, 2026
Current
81% YES (+23.5pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this