1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
Closes April 5, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
54% / 59%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
55%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1871042
This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Thunder (-20.5): 64%, Spread: Thunder (-21.5): 61%, Spread: Thunder (-22.5): 57%.
1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this