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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 12?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
21%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH +0.3% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.2% ↓, ETH +0.3% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
-0.3pp
Live compute03:22 PM

Polymarket Price

22%YES
79%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

23% / 24%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.3pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 12?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879340

Outcome Markets9 markets

This event has 9 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 61%, price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 22%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~14%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

22% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

19% → 25%

Apr 11, 2026

Current

26% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 22%99%
Buy YES@ 22¢
Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 79¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this