Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.6pp below current market price; market at 61% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.3% ↓, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$28K
Bid / Ask
61% / 61%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
60%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879343
This event has 9 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 61%, price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 24%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~12%.
price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on Apri
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Current
60% YES (+0.7pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this