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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
60%FIS
1ppvs market 61%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.6pp below current market price; market at 61% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.3% ↓, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.3% ↓, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
-0.6pp
Live compute03:21 PM

Polymarket Price

61%YES
39%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

61% / 61%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

60%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.5pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879343

Outcome Markets9 markets

This event has 9 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 61%, price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 24%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~12%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

63% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

60% YES (+0.7pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 61%99%
Buy YES@ 61¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 39¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this