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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12?
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Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
27%FIS
6ppvs market 33%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -6.2pp below current market price; market at 33% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -2.5% ↓, ETH -3.7% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -2.5% ↓, ETH -3.7% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-6.2pp
Live compute12:56 PM

Polymarket Price

33%YES
67%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

47% / 59%

Spread

12.70pp

Expert Signal

33%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 12.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879415

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,30: 65%, price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,20: 33%, price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,40: 1%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+13.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: +19.7pp

26% → 46%

Apr 12, 2026

Peak probability

46% YES — highest in period

Apr 12, 2026

Current

41% YES (-4.2pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 33%99%
Buy YES@ 33¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 67¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this