ForecastMind
Markets/Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 226.5
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Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 226.5

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

42%YES
59%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

41% / 42%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

40%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 226.5" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 226.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1885022

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 221.5: 55%, Pistons vs. Magic: 54%, Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline: 54%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

45% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

42% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 42%99%
Buy YES@ 42¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 59¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this