Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
Closed April 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$95K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
29% / 33%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
30%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $95K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891183
This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5): 43%, Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5): 39%, Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5): 35%.
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
42% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Biggest move: -13.5pp
44% → 30%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
30% YES (-13.5pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this