ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
Share on X

Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)

Closed April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

30%YES
71%NO

Volume 24h

$95K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

29% / 33%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $95K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891183

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5): 43%, Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5): 39%, Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5): 35%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

42% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Biggest move: -13.5pp

44% → 30%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

30% YES (-13.5pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 30%99%
Buy YES@ 30¢
Edge

+1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 71¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this