ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
Share on X

Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)

Closed April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES
57%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

38% / 44%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1894153

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5): 53%, Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5): 51%, 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5): 47%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-33.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

21%

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: -33.5pp

55% → 21%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

21% YES (-33.5pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 43%99%
Buy YES@ 43¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 57¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this