ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13?

Closed April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
39%FIS
6ppvs market 45%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -5.8pp below current market price; market at 45% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -1.8% ↓, ETH -2.9% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -1.8% ↓, ETH -2.9% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-5.8pp
Live compute08:01 AM

Polymarket Price

4%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$464K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

44% / 45%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

45%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $464K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891974

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-24.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 13, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Apr 8, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Apr 10, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Apr 12, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

64%

Apr 13, 2026

Biggest move: -63.5pp

64% → 0%

Apr 13, 2026

Peak probability

77% YES — highest in period

Apr 11, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+14.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+14.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this